by Pete Maltbaek, General Manager North America, Smarter Grid Solutions
With several significant developments in the climate and clean energy domain in America in the past 12-months, and with the clear onward march towards a renewable and decentralized electrical power system, it is likely that there will be many more positive developments made in 2020.
Here are our predictions for the US energy system in 2020:
Science and policy
We expect much more clarity of communication and impact from the climate science as well as lived experience and observation on climate change effects. There are likely to be many more climate emergency declarations, 100% renewables policies enacted, more 'net zero target' setting and rolling forward of timelines to reflect the urgency.
Regulation
It is possible that we will see regulators to respond to the science and policy through market and system measures and a general opening and tilting of the sector towards clean energy.
The value of customer participation, self-production and flexibility are likely to be ongoing trends, balanced by the need for all to pay for the grid. Regulators will begin the work of getting out in front of the climate agenda, reflect the technical advances, opportunities and system changes while incentivizing utility business model changes and the adoption of competitive, non-wires solutions to network capacity issues.
Customers
With the wider citizenry being more climate aware and motivated, we expect more innovative customer value propositions from energy and network companies and a greater receptiveness to these from customers.
This will include growth in corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to meet private and municipal energy targets, Energy as a Service (EaaS) solutions for those needing capital support in pursuit of their goals, dynamic tariffs for smart/flexible cost-conscious customers, and multiple energy vector solutions including flexible EV charging and heat solutions for those wishing a holistic approach to their energy needs.
Technology
What is great is that many of the technologies needed for the energy transition are either currently in place or are coming soon.
But many of these technologies need to make the jump to commercial solutions to enable implementation at scale, for example, end-to-end supply chain, productization and value engineering, while others need effective system integration to manage the complexities of the electricity system and market.
Systems and business models
To deliver an energy system at least as good as today's in terms of cost and performance, there needs to be more coordination and co-optimization of the many new clean energy technologies, customers, the grid and markets.
In 2020, we expect to see many more deployments of connected energy solutions at a systems level including, renewable energy generation, electrified vehicle transport, marine transport, space, water and process heat, and other flexibilities from customers.
We should see the hybridization of technologies in 2020 such as wind/storage, PV/storage and PV/EV and more solutions to integrate these to grid and market at different scales. Business model innovation should continue from service providers and the supply chain, for example, as a service, data focused, flexible licensing and leasing, as well as from customers.
Finance & investment
The New Year should see the continued flow of greater investment finance into clean energy assets and other clean tech with a manifestation in the onward rise of renewable energy and associated operational, market and system integration solutions. The economics facts on fossil fuels and fossil fired electricity generation will continue to divert investment dollars towards clean sources.
New players & entrants
We expect to see a greater prominence for new, emerging and growing participants in electricity supply chains as well as direct market participants including EV provision, EV charging, energy storage, behind the meter aggregation, flexibility service providers, hybrid energy solutions and heating and cooling (service) solutions. This will start to have a profound effect on the nature of clean, decentralized energy systems and on the wider system.
The coming decade...
We can now see many of the effects of a decade of innovation, policy, regulation and investment in the clean energy transition. At the same time, these changes are only the starting point for the complete decarbonization of energy with the accompanying creation of a smarter, more flexible and more decentralized, customer focused energy system. The coming decade will see massive changes in the structure and experience of clean energy with a major shift from a select few markets to all corners of the world.
About the Author:
Peter (Pete) Maltbaek
Executive Vice President and General Manager-North America
Smarter Grid Solutions (SGS)
Peter is a member of the Smarter Grid Solutions (SGS) global executive team, responsible for the management and growth of the company's business throughout North America. SGS has spent ten years developing, deploying and proving a unique approach to managing the Smart Grid, and is recognized as a thought leader in this domain. SGS has worked with and learned from electricity distribution companies, regulatory authorities, university research teams, DER developers, SCADA/DMS suppliers, grid edge device manufacturers and many others. Prior to his current position, Peter held senior-level management positions at Nexant, Power Assure, Silver Spring Networks, and CPower.